Plastic Podcast Episode 12: Plastic is a Climate Issue

In this episode of Plastic Podcast, host Clark Marchese delves into the intricate relationship between plastics and climate change with Dr. Livia Cabernard, a sustainability expert from the Technical University of Munich. They explore how the lifecycle of plastics, especially those powered by coal, significantly contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Through a detailed discussion, Dr. Cabernard unveils how shifts in global production to coal-based economies exacerbate climate impacts and discusses potential policy measures that could mitigate these effects. The conversation also touches on the social and economic dimensions of plastic production, emphasizing the urgent need for comprehensive strategies that address both environmental and human factors. This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complex interplay between our material choices and global climate challenges.

Episode Guests: Dr. Livia Cabernard

More information about Livia Cabernard here

Find Dr. Cabernard’s article on plastic and emissions here

Find more of Dr. Cabernard’s articles here.

More information about the episode and the Plastic Podcast

Episode Transcript  and more information on the Pine Forest Media Website

Follow Pine Forest Media on Instagram @pineforestmedia

Hosted, produced, written, and edited by Clark Marchese 

Cover art and PFM logo by Laurel Wong. 

Theme music by Tadeo Cabellos

[00:00:09.820] - Clark 

Hello, and welcome back to another episode of Plastic Podcast, the show that tells the science and the story of our relationship with plastic. I am your host, Clark Morkasi, and today we are serving Plastic and Climate Change. All right, but before we jump into it, we always get started with the Trivia Question. Last week's was about polar bears, but this one is actually on theme. The question is, in which city did countries from around the world meet and agree to work together to keep global emissions from rising beyond 1.5 degrees celsius above pre-industrial averages? Is it A, Paris, France, B, Durban, South Africa, C, Marrakech, Morocco, or D, Madrid, Spain. Spotify listeners can answer directly on the episode page of the app, and everyone else can DM me on Instagram at pineforestmedia for a chance to win a monthly prize. No cheating. Stick around to the end of the credits to hear the answer to last week's question and a lovely review from one of you. Okay, plastics and climate change. That's what we're here to talk about today. If you were to make a list of environmental concerns related to plastics, you might start with turtles, then perhaps whales, the ocean, garbage patches might come up.

[00:01:40.640] - Clark 

If you've been following the news more recently, you might mention microplastics or emerging concerns and uncertainties around human health. What might come later on the list, if it makes it on at all, is plastic and climate change. This issue is one of those that gets reported on the least when it comes to plastic. That's not to say we don't see climate change in the news all the time. It's everywhere and has been for a while. But I want you to think about the last time you saw an article about plastic that talked about climate change, or an article about climate change that mentioned plastic. If you can't think of one, please do send it to me, but their infrequency is not because these issues are unrelated. In fact, they are very closely linked. I have a guest today to tell us exactly why that is. Today, we are speaking with Dr. Livia Cabernard, A professor at the Technical University of Munich, Dr. Cabernard completed her PhD studies in sustainability assessment of global supply chains. Her work now focuses on supply chain analysis, life cycle assessment, Earth observation data, integrated assessment models, and comprehensive environmental impact assessments.

[00:02:48.530] - Clark 

Lots of big words, but we're going to unpack some of them together. She also wrote a very interesting article, which I'll post in the show notes, titled The Growing Environmental Footprint of Plastics Driven by Coal Combustion, which is why I wanted to speak with her today. In our conversation, Dr. Livia Cabernard explains the link between plastics and climate change, why this is a growing concern, and why plastics deserve our specific attention when tackling the climate issue. I guess let's just get started. All right. Welcome, Dr. Cabernard. Thank you so much for taking the It's time to speak with me today. The first question I have is if you could just introduce yourself and tell us a bit about your research.

[00:03:36.340] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

Sure. My name is Livia Cabernard. I have studied Environmental Sciences at ETH, and I did a PhD thesis in the field of life cycle assessment, specifically top-down life cycle assessment, where I assess the environmental footprint of entire nations and industries, for instance, also the plastics industry. Since September, I'm an assistant professor in sustainability assessment of food and agricultural supply chains at Technical University in Munich, where I apply my methods and databases specifically to food and agricultural products.

[00:04:18.650] - Clark 

Okay, perfect. It's going to be important to understand life cycle assessment as we go along. Basically, this means taking into consideration everything that happens to or because of a product product from the very beginning of when it starts to exist, all the way down to what happens even after it is disposed of. Oftentimes, this method is examining environmental impacts of a product, and that could mean a host of different things. But today, the environmental footprint we are looking at is contributions to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions. The product we are going to be looking at is, of course, plastic. Now, the link between plastics and climate change may not be immediately clear. People may think of plastics as a marine issue, something that's harmful for wildlife. More and more, we're hearing about plastics in human health. Can you explain to us why plastics is a climate issue? What is the link between climate change and plastic?

[00:05:14.060] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

When we look at the plastic supply chain, we include all the activities along the supply chain of plastics, like for instance, also providing the electricity for producing plastics. Actually, producing plastics is a process that needs a lot of energy. Now, if we provide this energy, for instance, with coal, this releases a lot of greenhouse gas emissions.

[00:05:38.830] - Clark 

This speaks to the importance of using a life cycle approach, because if you were to look at plastic only in the ocean, you might miss that climate link. So climate change. We know that greenhouse gas emissions are the main driver of climate change, and our world in data tells us that our emissions are only continuing to increase despite scientists telling us that we really need to move them in in the opposite direction. But it seems that everything takes energy. Anything that we're producing that still uses greenhouse gasses is going to be contributing to climate change. Why then is it important to single out plastics? What is revealed when we focus in on the plastic sector specifically?

[00:06:21.130] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

Then in our study, we could show that over the past decades, we had a strong growth and shift of plastics production, especially in coal-based economies like China, where the energy then to produce the plastics is supplied with coal. Actually, high-income regions like Europe or the USA have also contributed to this because they have outsourced their plastics production to these coal-based economies.

[00:06:47.300] - Clark 

Okay, so to combat climate change, we need to be moving away from energy sources like coal, and the plastics industry is moving toward coal. In the 1950s, the United States was using coal for just over a of its energy needs, and over the last several decades, that's shrunk to about 10%. Not to say that it was all replaced by renewables, but we did shrink our usage of coal. China, on the other hand, as of 2020, relies on coal for 56% of its energy needs. I'm wondering, why is this trend emerging, the outsourcing of plastic production to coal-based economies?

[00:07:23.740] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

On the one hand, it's definitely cheaper. On the other hand, we also have stricter policies here. For instance, we have agreed on the Paris Agreement, which tells us to reduce our domestic emissions. The problem is that such policies can sometimes even foster a shift to regions where we have less strict environmental policies This is meaning we outsource our production to abroad.

[00:07:48.600] - Clark 

Okay. The Paris Agreement tells countries to focus on domestic emissions, and this is measured by emissions from production. Now, there is increasing push for international regulation shift its focus to include consumer emissions, because at the moment, Europe and the United States can work towards their targets by simply outsourcing production, and with it, outsourcing their climate impacts as well. I'm curious, too, because we like to tackle topics with a science and approach on the show. Are there any social or economic implications of this trend of outsourcing?

[00:08:23.350] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

What we observed in our assessment was that actually, also, plastics production is growing a lot in Asia, the value-added is still mostly generated in Europe and the USA, because at the end, producing plastics is not generating so much, but actually selling the products at the end, Europe and USA generates a lot of value added. At the same time, when we look, however, also at the employed workforce in the plastics value chain, the workforce is mainly employed in Asia. There's a a low paid workforce actually to produce the plastics while the value added as mentioned is then generated in the higher income regions. But yeah, it's also difficult to touch on this because I think sometimes for lower income regions, This is the competitive advantage they have, right?

[00:09:19.850] - Clark 

So another part of the life cycle we might consider is that all of this plastic that is now being produced in countries like China has to make its way back to Europe and the United States in order for us to be such high consumers. I'm wondering if the shift in production country also increases emissions impact due to transportation. To what extent does that contribute to overall emissions?

[00:09:41.880] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

But actually for plastics, it's less relevant because plastics is mostly shipped and the emissions of shipping aren't that high. But for instance, if you look at tropical fruits, which can be sometimes transported by planes, this would then have a higher effect. The most distinct It leverages definitely the reliance on coal producing these commodities.

[00:10:06.650] - Clark 

If I understand correctly, plastic's contribution to climate change is worse than ever before because not only are we producing more plastic than ever before, but more of it is being produced with this high emitting fuel of coal. Tell me, though, how much worse is coal than, let's say, oil or natural gas in terms of emissions?

[00:10:24.980] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

Combusting coal releases far more greenhouse gas emissions than when we you provide the energy with oil or gas, especially gas is more efficient. When we look at the way how we produce plastics, we have also improved the efficiency in a way that we could, to some extent, also decrease emissions, but still we have compensated by this now just by switching to more coal combustion.

[00:10:53.070] - Clark 

I think we also have to ask ourselves where the energy comes from. Now is maybe a good time for some vocabulary words. I When you came across them in reviewing your research, which are helpful for understanding the life cycle approach. Can you explain what an upstream emission is?

[00:11:08.060] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

The upstream emissions of plastics is everything that happens not at the plastic production plant itself, but providing the electricity, for instance, or transporting the feedstock, for instance. We see, for instance, a pattern of oil that is extracted in the Middle East, and this oil is then transported to China. All of these activities release greenhouse gas emissions. Also, even, for instance, the materials that are needed to construct the plants to produce plastics, all of this releases greenhouse gas emissions in the upstream gym.

[00:11:44.880] - Clark 

Okay. So upstream emissions is any emissions that come before plastic is actually made, if I understand correctly, and then downstream emissions, I assume, would be emissions that come afterwards, such as transportation or incineration?

[00:11:59.140] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

Exactly.

[00:12:00.260] - Clark 

Cool. Okay. So the upstream chain, like fracking, coal extraction, these things are very emissions-heavy in addition to the social, political, and economic concerns that they raise. But let's talk about the rest of the downstream emissions. In what ways does plastic waste or waste management contribute to climate change?

[00:12:20.030] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

If we burn the plastics, the plastics is made of oil, and then, of course, the greenhouse gas emissions are released then again. But when we look at the contribution, we see that the vast majority of the carbon footprint of plastics is because of producing plastics and not because of the end-of-life stages. To some extent, the reason for this is also because most of the plastics is not incinerated. Actually, it ends up on landfills. But even in our paper, we also analyzed how much would the carbon footprint of plastics increase if we would incinerate all the plastics that we produce every year. An absolute worst case scenario. We could show it would actually increase only by 20%. The production contributes to the majority of the emissions. We need to consider here that it's only when we look at climate impact. The main problem at the moment is the production stage. We could improve here a lot by switching to cleaner electricity. But of course, with all the problems like the plastics in the animals and so on. The pollution here, the end-of-life stage is still the main problem.

[00:13:37.590] - Clark 

The paper that you've written, which we've referenced a couple of times, tracked plastic usage and climate impact for the last 30 years, from 1995 all the way to 2030. Anything that happened before this paper was published is knowable through rigorous data collection and research, but it's only 2024. How do you go about projecting plastic usage and its climate impacts into the future all the way to 2030? Also, when you did that, what did you find?

[00:14:08.180] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

Also with projections for the future, of course, we always have some uncertainty. I think these projections, we assume that the plastics production will further increase in the future, as many scenarios are forecasting it. But also they assume that the entire world will implement measures like switching to renewable technologies in a way that we can meet, for instance, the two-degree target. As mentioned, this means we need to switch to renewable energies. What we can show then is that even if we increase plastics production, we can reduce the carbon footprint of plastics by switching to renewables.

[00:14:51.750] - Clark 

Okay, so quickly, two degrees. You may have heard 1.5 degrees. Maybe you even heard of 6 degrees. For anyone who isn't familiar with these reference points, scientists have established a benchmark of 1.5 degrees, meaning that we need to prevent our climate from reaching an average temperature of 1.5 degrees celsius above pre-industrial averages. A certain set of environmental consequences are triggered if we go above 1.5, another set are triggered if we pass 2 degrees, and so on and so on.

[00:15:22.470] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

We have a linear relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and temperature increase. Now, politics has agreed that we need to limit global warming. Our original target was 1.5 degree to reduce all the really crazy changes and harms to the environment and people. This means now, if we want to reach this 1.5 degree target, we have a certain emissions that are still allowed to be released. For instance, if we want to reach the 2 degree target, we have a bit a higher amount of emissions that can be released. This is what we call a carbon carbon budget. For the future, we made some projections. How does the economy evolve, the population growth, and so on, and how much we need to implement technologies to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions in a way that we can stick to this carbon budget. Of course, the higher the degree targets, the higher is our budget, and the less strict the implemented measures need to be. So needs to be highlighted I'm delighted you that actually also 6 degrees scenario is really something that we shouldn't anticipate. Also because when we look at the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and temperature increase, this relationship is linear.

[00:16:45.750] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

And look at the relationship between temperature increase and all the negative impacts on humanity, this increase is exponential. With every additional temperature increase, we will have more flots, wildfires, roads, et cetera.

[00:17:04.200] - Clark 

The last section of your article is about policy recommendations. Based off of all of the research that you do with the life cycle of plastic, what policy recommendations will you have for us so that the plastic sector plays a role in meeting those emissions targets?

[00:17:21.080] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

For plastics, we also have some possibilities to contribute here. On the one hand, indirectly, we can reduce the carbon footprint of plastic by switching to renewable technologies, which we anyways have to do. But of course, on the other hand, we can also reduce plastics consumption in a way that we do not need to, again, produce new plastics. Also, we can reduce the primary production, or we can, of course, also increase recycling rates. Here we should also think about how high-income regions can contribute to such renewable energy transitions in lower-income regions. Because when you look at the investment cost, for instance, for a plastic production factory in, let's say, China, it's very expensive to compensate for all the greenhouse gas emissions. When you add, for instance, a carbon price on these greenhouse gas emissions. But when you look, for instance, in Europe, where we sell the products like the computer, we have some plastics in this computer, and the carbon price of this plastic is about 5% of the entire price of this computer. It wouldn't be so expensive to pay a couple of percentage higher price to the final products. While for the producer, they do not generate so much value added.

[00:18:47.420] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

For them, it's not only a few percentage, but the price can then even be a many fold higher. Okay. Implementation of a carbon price from a consumer perspective would be one important policy measure. Another policy measure is also that, of course, we avoid plastics wherever it is possible. However, substitution can also be difficult because sometimes the alternative products have a higher impact. For instance, in a car, if we switch from plastics to more steel, the car is heavier and has an even higher emissions. With substitutions, we always need to be careful. An important policy measure would also be to change the product design of the plastics in a way that is more uniform so that we can here recycle it. Because a colleague of me has investigated that even if we collect all the plastics that is currently produced, that was in Switzerland, we could increase the recycling rate from 10 to 20%. It's still only 20%. To further increase, we would need a change in the product design.

[00:20:01.410] - Clark 

Okay, wow. That's a lot of good policy initiatives. If we're going to be optimists here, we might take note of the fact that a lot of the things that you mentioned, they're actually pretty feasible. It's actually possible for us to regulate product design, at least a lot more feasible than it is for us to scoop out all of the microplastics from the sea. While we have a lot of work to do, it seems like we know what that work is, and not all of it is out of reach. We are going to start to wrap up this episode. I just want to ask you if there's anything else that you'd like to add based off of the work that you do in this space or the conversation that we've had today.

[00:20:42.610] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

What I really hope is that the results we generate here in research, especially in the field of life cycle assessments, that they, as we often say, allow for sustainable decision making. What I really hope is that they are now implemented also in an efficient way.

[00:21:01.210] - Clark 

Well, I certainly hope that, too. The last question is, where can listeners find you and follow your work?

[00:21:08.040] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

Also, of course, on my homepage. Also, just if you type in my name, you will find me.

[00:21:15.170] - Clark 

Okay. I will make sure to put some information about you in the episode description so listeners can find that very easily. This is the part where I say thank you so much for taking the time to speak with me today. Thank you for teaching us all about climate change in plastics and for your very important research in this space.

[00:21:33.250] - Dr. Livia Cabernard

Yes. Thank you, too.

[00:21:43.610] - Clark 

Okay. I want to say another major thank you to Dr. Livia Cabernard. A couple of things strike me from this interview, and the first is a reoccurrence of the theme whereby the West, which consumes most of the world's plastic, is again outsourcing another consequence of its consumption to another part of the world. Two weeks ago, we had an episode about the global economy of plastic waste, and at the end, I brought up the concept of environmental scapegoating, and I think that applies here, too. China gets a lot of attention for being the top global greenhouse gas emitter, and I think that attention is necessary. I think it's fair, and I think that things need to change. We just need to make sure that we're not using that as a distraction to hide the fact that first, Not only is the United States number two on the list, but second, a significant amount of China's emissions are supported by the American economy. Now, I don't think that this situation is exactly the same as waste, where in every country, it should be responsible for its own waste. I do see the value in global trade, and I think it would be inefficient for every country to produce everything that it consumes.

[00:22:50.550] - Clark 

But just as a thought experiment, if the United States did produce everything that it consumed, our emissions might even be higher than China's. I don't have data on that, but it's not hard to imagine. Not only do we have to shift the source of energy consumption in both countries and around the world, but we need to rethink our systems of consumption. I think this also supports the recommendation that Dr. Cabernard gave us that high-income countries should economically support the energy transition in other places around the world. The other thing I want to bring up are these degree targets, 1.5, 2 degrees, 6. Dr. Cabernard told us that there is a linear relationship between emissions and warming, but the relationship between temperature and environmental impact is exponential. That is really scary. Now, the linear nature of emissions and warming means that we have a little wiggle room as to the balance we strike between a shift in energy sourcing and a reduction in consumption. But both need to be a part of the equation to meet those targets. As Dr. Cabernard said, 6 degrees is really, well, we need to avoid that, which means we need to be reducing emissions wherever we can.

[00:23:57.700] - Clark 

One of the major problems with plastic that is both an issue for pollution in the oceans and the climate is that a lot of it is truly junk, stuff we don't need. If we're able to forego the emissions from all the unnecessary single-use plastic, that will make our job of hitting these targets all that much easier. I hope through this episode, I was able to show you that plastic is a climate issue. Not only do I think each is a major plot point in telling the story of the other, but the moral of both stories is that both plastics and climate mitigation strategies need to be addressed as a package deal. You've been listening to Plastic Podcast. You can find more information about this week's guest and links to their work in the episode description. Cover art for the show was done by Laurel Wong, and the music you're listening to was done by Tadeo Cabellos. I am your host, Clark Marchese, and this episode was produced, written, and engineered by me. So if you found it interesting, send it to someone you know. Plastic Podcast is part of a larger network of sciencey podcasts called Pine Forest Media, and you can find more information about us in the episode description or at pineforestpods.com

[00:25:13.810] - Clark 

 on Instagram and TikTok @pineforestmedia. We've got some exciting podcast coming out this year. We just released South Pole, which is all about the science of Antarctica, so you can search for that wherever you're streaming. And a five-star rating across platforms and a review on Apple podcast is one of the best things you can do to help the entire network to grow. All right, thank you to all of you who have made it this far. Today's review comes from Ella from Hungary, who says, Such a great podcast, really making science fun. Well, Ella, thanks to all. If you would like your review to be featured on the show, all you've got to do is leave one on Apple podcast. All right, now for the answer to last week's Trivia Question, and the answer is polar bears. Polar Bears. Polar Bears have a coat that is so successful in insulating heat and keeping them warm, but it also makes it very difficult to see them with an infrared camera. It is also time to announce the first Trivia Game winner. His name is Kieran R. Madewell. Kieran got the Trivia Question right, and he suggested his own prize using the Spotify app, which is dinner with the host.

[00:26:19.860] - Clark 

And now he's going to get some Ethiopian food, courtesy of Pine Forest Media. So if you guys want to win a prize and maybe even pick it yourself, be sure to answer those Trivia questions each week. All right, that's all I have for you today, and we'll talk soon